Rumbek North County, Lakes State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 43,410
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 73,963
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 72,861

Ethnic groups: Agar Dinka (Pakam: Akok-kor, Gak, Lieth, Manuer, Nielniel)

Displacement Figures Q2 2022: 35,279 IDPs (-18,070 Q1 2020) and 12,682 returnees (+898 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Crisis (Phase 3); IPC Projections: December to March 2023 – Crisis (Phase 3); April to July 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Rumbek North County is located in Lakes State. It borders Rumbek Centre to the south-east and Cueibet County to the south-west. It also borders Warrap State (Tonj East County) to the north-west and Unity State (Mayendit and Panyijiar counties) to the north-east.

Rumbek North is part of the Western flood plains sorghum and cattle livelihood zone (FEWSNET 2018) and livelihood activities in this county include fishing, farming, livestock rearing and gathering of wild plants. A report from 2018 estimates that 80% of households engage in agriculture (FAO & WFP 2018).  More recent data indicates this figure has declined to 70% (FAO/WFP 2022). Gross cereal yields for Rumbek North County have been at 0.7 tonnes per hectare in 2021 and 2022 (FAO/WFP 2023). Common crops include groundnut, sesame, millet and maize, with okra, beans and cassava also being cultivated. The soil is fertile; although annual flooding makes agriculture difficult. Farming and fishing take place at subsistence levels and households often rely on markets or wild produce to survive. Commodities are distributed to Rumbek North via the main market at Rumbek town, the state capital.

The food security situation has severely deteriorated due to conflict and flooding. IPC projections put Rumbek North County at crisis (IPC level 3) levels in November 2022, with food insecurity conditions projected to persist at the same level until March 2023, whereupon it deteriorates to emergency (IPC level 4) levels. Between December 2022 and July 2023, over 25% of households in the county are projected to require between 25% and 50% of their calorific needs to be provided through humanitarian assistance.

Many of the nearly 35,000 IDPs currently in Rumbek North are residents of nearby Cueibet and Rumbek Center counties who have been displaced by criminality, cattle raiding and inter- and intra-clan violence. Inflation and inconsistent access to markets have further exacerbated levels of food insecurity in the county. 88% of households in a recent survey identified high food prices as a major problem (AVSI 2021). A 2021 survey conducted by AVSI found that 70% of surveyed households believed their livelihoods had worsened in recent years due to a lack of agriculture inputs, relevant agricultural knowledge, insecurity, and drought. (AVSI 2021) These shocks to livelihoods have been compounded by changes in rainfall patterns, dry spells and flooding – especially in northern areas of the county. In 2021, Rumbek North was identified as a flood-affected county by the Emergency Response Coordination Center.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES

The county HQ is Maper town. Maper and Meen markets have continued to function, however inflation has reduced accessibility to goods for many households. Flooding and conflict-related insecurity on the main road link to Rumbek Town has disrupted trade at times and made parts of Rumbek North County inaccessible. Typically, markets would provide access to food goods when crop yields are low, however inflation has made this challenging for many households. The county is also prone to guinea worm and measles outbreaks, leading to vaccination campaigns and other interventions from aid actors. Veterinary care for livestock is also lacking, making cattle vulnerable to diseases.

Rumbek North County is home to one (1) Early Childhood Development centre and thirty-four (34) primary schools located throughout the county. There are currently no secondary schools operating in Rumbek North County.

Rumbek North County was reported to have eight (8) health facilities, all of which are regarded as being functional. Among these are including seven (7) functional PHCUs and one (1) PHCC in 2022. This means that there were an estimated 1.44 PHCUs per 15,000 people and 0.69 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO. No hospitals were reported in Rumbek North County.

Displacement and returns have also increased humanitarian needs in the area, and OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023 estimates that there are currently over 49,500 people with needs in the county (compared to 53,700 in 2021), which is 68% of the estimated population of the county reported in the HNO. In February and April 2023, clashes between the Luach-Jang Dinka and Pakam section of the Agar Dinka clan escalated significantly along the border between Rumbek North and Tonj East County in Warrap State, with communities from other parts of Greater Tonj reported to have supported the Pakam section. A 2023 report from the UNSC estimated that 143 people were killed during the conflict in February, with a further 76 killed in April.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Inter-communal violence has also been a major driver of insecurity and displacement in Rumbek North County. The segmentary lineage system of Dinka communities means that even small-scale, inter-household incidents of violence can rapidly escalate and spread to higher levels of social organization between villages, sections and clans. There are longstanding tensions that have resulted in violence and cattle raids between the Dinka Agar clan of Rumbek North and Dinka Gok that primarily inhabit neighbouring Cueibet County and a small area in the west of Rumbek North County. Within the county and neighbouring Cueibet County, the Keer, Awac and Luach sub-clans of the Dinka Gok often conduct cattle raids and attacks against each other. Residents of Rumbek North also often engage in cattle raids/attacks with neighboring Tonj East. One of the main drivers of conflict are disputes over access to water and grazing land, both within the county and with communities in bordering counties and states such as Warrap and Unity.

Rumbek North remained under the overall control of the SPLA during the recent civil war. In January 2015, the county commissioner reported opposition forces attacked an SPLA barracks at Manteu near Maper town in the north of the county. The attackers reportedly burned down over 150 houses and 2,172 individuals were displaced to Maper as a result (IRNA 2015). In May 2015, government and opposition forces again clashed in the area around Madol payam. The county commissioner was killed and media reported that around 3,700 residents were displaced as a result (Protection Cluster 2015). In the same month, government forces used Maper town as a base from which it launched attacks against SPLA-IO forces in Mayendit and Panyijar Counties in Unity State. The government also accused opposition forces of launching attacks against civilians, including cattle raids, in Lakes State throughout 2015. However the opposition denied the accusations.

Since 2014 there has been increased violence among Dinka sub-clans around Rumbek North. For example, the Gak and Manuer sub-clans turned on each other for the first time in March 2014 in a worrying sign of possible escalation of violence in the county – a recurring dynamic that led to widespread displacement. In mid-2014, government security forces clashed with the Pakam community in Rumbek Centre in an effort to push the community back into the ‘traditional’ homes they left two decades ago, in Rumbek North. The SPLA has also been involved in clashes with armed youth at cattle camps in Rumbek North. By the end of 2014, local authorities reported that 20,268 (or roughly 30 percent) of the population had been displaced within the county due to intercommunal conflict or flooding. Of this total, 11,291 individuals had been displaced due to unusually heavy floods and 8,910 individuals had been displaced from Rumbek Centre to Rumbek North following insecurity in the former (IRNA 2014).

More recently, in early 2018 inter-communal violence contributed to the displacement of an estimated 28,000 people from Rumbek North to Yirol East (REACH 2019. In March 2020, IOM reported that cattle raids contributed to the displacement of 2,738 people from Deng-Nhial to Amok (IOM 2020). Later that month, violence again flared up between the Gak and Manuer communities around the Malueth area (Radio Tamazuj 2020). This continuing violence highlights the difficulty of sustaining peace in the face of a patchwork of interconnected conflicts in Rumbek North and surrounding counties.

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams: Maper (County HQ), Aloor, Madol, Malueeth, Maper, Mayen, Wun-rieng

UN OCHA 2020 map of Rumbek North County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-rumbek-north-county-reference-map-march-2020

Roads:

• A primary road runs north out of Rumbek (Rumbek Centre County) to the Unity State capital of Bentiu, via Maper in Rumbek North County. During both the rainy and dry seasons of 2022 and 2023 respectively, the road was deemed impassable.

UNHAS-Recognized Heli Landing Sites and Airstrips: None 

REFERENCES

AVSI. (2021). Multi-Sector Household Survey – Rumbek North County (Lakes State).  Retrieved 18 July 2023.

ECHO. (2021). Killing of aid workers. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Eye Radio. (2019). Over 16 die in W. Lakes Communal Clashes. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

FAO/WFP. (2023). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 31 July 2023. See equivalent versions of the CFSAM report online for data from previous years.

FEWSNET. (2018). Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for the Republic of South Sudan (Updated). Retrieved 13 July 2023.

IOM. (2020). South Sudan Event Tracking: Rumbek North, Lakes State. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

IRNA. (2014). IRNA Report: Amok, Maper & Malueth, Rumbek North County, Lakes State. 12 November 2014. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

IRNA. (2015). IRNA Report: Maper- Rumbek North County, Lakes State. 23 January 2015. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

Protection Cluster. (2015). Protection Trends South Sudan. No.5. April-June 2015. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2020). 13 people killed in intercommunal fighting in Lakes: MP Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2019). Western Lakes Pop. Movement, Livelihoods and Food Security Profile. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

UNSC. (2023). Situation in South Sudan: Report of the Secretary-General, 13 June 2023. Retrieved 20 July 2023.

Xinhua. (2021). UN condemns attack on aid workers in South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REPORTS on RUMBEK NORTH

Peacebuilding Opportunities Fund. (2020). What drives the cattle camps? Exploring the dynamics of pastoralist communities in western Lakes State, South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. and Wal, G. (2021). Law, War and Returns: Learning from South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2014). Conflict Analysis: Lakes, Northern Bahr El Gazhal and Warrap States. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Saferworld. (2023). Conflict, gender-based violence and mental health in Lakes State: Perspectives from South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Wilunda, C., et al. (2017). Barriers to utilisation of antenatal care services in South Sudan: a qualitative study in Rumbek North County. Reproductive Health 14(1). Retrieved 18 July 2023.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.