Rumbek Centre County, Lakes State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 153,550
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 134,572
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 216,017

Ethnic groups: Agar Dinka (Kuei: Amothnhom, Nyang) (Ruop: Panyuon)

Displacement Figures Q2 2022: 4,815 IDPs (-105 Q1 2020) and 12,720 returnees (-3,665 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Crisis (Phase 3); IPC Projections: December to March 2023 – Crisis (Phase 3); April to July 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Rumbek Centre County is located in Lakes State. It borders Rumbek North County to the north, Rumbek East County to the south-east, Wulu County to the south-west, and Cueibet County to the west. It also borders Unity State (Panyijiar County) to the north-east.

The county is classified in the Western flood plains sorghum and cattle livelihood zone (FEWSNET 2018). It is prone to flooding and turns into swamps during the rainy season. County residents rely on both farming and livestock herding for their livelihoods – estimates from 2018 report that 60% of households engage in agriculture (FAO/WFP 2018). This remains the case in figures from 2021 (FAO/WFP 2022). Gross cereal yields for Rumbek Centre County were at 0.9 tonnes per hectare in 2021, increasing to 1 tonne per hectare in 2022 (FAO/WFP 2023). People herd cattle and goats, in addition to cultivating groundnut, maize, sorghum, okra, cucumber, onions, beans and pumpkin. Wild water lily seeds and nuts are also consumed. Most of the cereal sold in town is imported from Uganda. In addition to employment with the government, many residents engage in trade.

IPC projections put Rumbek Centre County at crisis (IPC level 3) levels in November 2022, with food insecurity conditions projected to persist at the same level until March 2023, whereupon it deteriorates to emergency (IPC level 4) levels.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES

The largest urban area in Rumbek Centre County is Rumbek town, which is located in the south of the county and serves as both the capital of Lakes State and the county headquarters. It is a centre for trade and commerce for surrounding counties and provides an important logistics and operational base. County residents have better access to markets relative to surrounding counties, however high prices for goods – due to market disruptions related to general insecurity and legal and illegal taxation – have been a deterrent to securing essential supplies. The number of cattle in the county has reduced compared to previous years, due to a combination of cattle raiding, the sale of livestock to supplement household income, and livestock disease that has spread due to the lack of veterinary services.

Rumbek Centre County is home to three (3) Early Childhood Development centres, fifty-eight (58) primary schools and eight (8) secondary schools including Rumbek National Secondary, the all-girls Loreto Girls Secondary and the all-boys La Salle Secondary, all in Matangai Payam.

Rumbek Centre County was reported to have twenty-three (23) health facilities, all of which were reported to be functional. Among them are fifteen (15) PHCUs, six (6) PHCCs and two (2) hospitals in 2022. This means that there were an estimated 1.04 PHCUs per 15,000 people and 1.39 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO. Both Rumbek State Hospital is and Kiir Mayardit Women’s Hospital are reported to have limited functionality.

The county received a limited number of IDPs following the outbreak of fighting in December 2013. By June 2016 the county was hosting an estimated 5,662 IDPs, however they appear to be living throughout the region instead of one central location. According to a REACH assessment from 2019, there has been tension between members of the host community and IDPs over local resources. This was compounded in 2019 when flooding that impacted Rumbek North led communities to move to Rumbek Centre with their cattle. Changes in cattle migration routes, whether due to natural disasters or insecurity, have also been observed in Rumbek Centre.

According to OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023, there are over 130,400 people with humanitarian needs in Rumbek Centre County (a noticeable increase from 94,700 in 2021), which is 60% of the estimated population for the county reported in the HNO. Insecurity along the main roads leading into Rumbek Centre has prevented consistent humanitarian access and has particularly impacted local markets which depend on road transportation for the supply of goods.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Rumbek Centre County has seen high levels of inter-communal violence since independence. According to community consultations held in 2012, Rumbek Centre has experienced border disputes with Wulu County (also in Lakes State) and Panyijiar County (in neighbouring Unity State), which have driven inter-communal violence. These disputes are often driven by competition over grazing land, cattle rustling, and revenge attacks when cattle thieves are killed (UNDP 2012). The segmentary lineage system of Dinka communities means that even small-scale, inter-household incidents of violence can rapidly escalate and spread to higher levels of social organization between villages, sections and clans.

There is a history of a high prevalence of gun ownership among civilians in Rumbek Center and the wider Lakes State, which has further increased since December 2013. Various disarmament campaigns have been undertaken in the county, which have been resisted by the population, partly due to a lack of trust between the state leadership and residents. In mid-2008 Rumbek Town was surrounded by the SPLA and an attempt at forced disarmament descended into violence and disorder, with the governor later apologising for the heavy-handed tactics (Saferworld 2012). However, this and subsequent disarmament campaigns in 2010 and 2015 have had limited success and small arms are still widely available in the area.

Rumbek Centre was not a major site of conflict between the SPLA and SPLA-IO during the civil war. However, owing to the central location of Lakes State, many deserting soldiers crossed through Rumbek Centre county en-route home from heavier fighting in Upper Nile and Jonglei States (REACH 2014). State officials accused opposition forces of participating in cattle raids on Manteu village, near the border with Unity State where heavy fighting has taken place, in January 2015 (Gurtong 2015). However, local residents told media that the incident was part of a cycle of ongoing attacks between Rumbek North residents and residents of Mayendit County, with no SPLA-IO involvement. This reflects the challenge of distinguishing between grassroots violence (revenge attacks or cattle raids) and more organized local or sub-national violence involving other actors, which sometimes overlap in practice.

While Lakes State and its counties have not been as affected by the national-level conflict between SPLA and SPLA-IO, the violence between Dinka sub-clans around Rumbek Centre and tension between authorities in Lakes State and youth has increased since 2013. These tensions resulted in thousands of young men moving out of the cattle camps and into the bush, in part because they felt there was no state-sanctioned justice for the victims of the violence (REACH 2014). For example, violence in March 2015 led to the killing of 70 people in Rumbek Centre (CEPO 2015a), in December 2017, a cattle raid led to four deaths and the theft of cattle and in March 2020, the Rup and Panyar communities clashed with Pakam, Kuei and Gony communities resulting at least 14 deaths in Rumbek Centre and the theft of 300 cattle (Radio Tamazuj 2020). This recurring violence has resulted in people fleeing to Rumbek Town and prevented their returning to their homes (REACH 2019).

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams listed in Government and UN documents: Jiir (County HQ in Rumbek Town), Amongpiny, Malek, Matangai, Mayom
Additional payams listed by local actors: Rumbek Town (County Headquarters)

UN OCHA 2020 map of Rumbek Centre County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-rumbek-centre-county-reference-map-march-2020

Roads:

• A primary road runs east to Yirol town and then on to Juba via Terekeka (Central Equatoria State). The Logistics Cluster deemed this road passable during the dry season of 2023, though during the rainy season of 2022 the road was designated impassable between Rumbek and Mingkaman, and “passable with difficulties” between Mingkaman and Terekeka (and thereafter passable to Juba).
• A primary road runs north out of Rumbek to the Unity State capital of Bentiu, via Maper in Rumbek North County. During both the rainy and dry seasons of 2022 and 2023 respectively, the road was deemed impassable according to the Logistics Cluster.
• A primary road also runs southwards to Mundri (via Mvolo) in Western Equatoria State. The Logistics Cluster deemed this road passable during both the rainy season of 2022 and dry season of 2023.
• A primary road runs from Rumbek to Wau town in Western Bahr-el Ghazal State, via Tonj town (in Warrap State). The Logistics Cluster deemed this road passable during both the rainy season of 2022 and dry season of 2023

UNHAS-Recognized Heli Landing Sites and Fixed-Wing Airplane Airstrips: Rumbek

REFERENCES

CEPO. (2015). 70 people were killed. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

FAO/WFP. (2023). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 31 July 2023. See equivalent versions of the CFSAM report online for data from previous years.

FEWSNET. (2018). Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for the Republic of South Sudan (Updated). Retrieved 13 July 2023.

Gurtong (2015). 7 killed in a cattle raid attempt in Rumbek North County. 20 January 2015. Retrieved via Wayback Machine 18 July 2023.

OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2020). 14 killed, 20 wounded in Lakes State inter-communal violence. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2019). Western Lakes Pop. Movement, Livelihoods and Food Security Profile. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Saferworld. (2012). Civilian disarmament in South Sudan: A legacy of struggle. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REPORTS on RUMBEK CENTRE

Daniel, E. O., et al. (2019). Factors Contributing to Missed Opportunities and Incomplete Vaccination of Children: A Focus on Mothers in Rumbek Centre County of Lakes State South Sudan. World Journal of Public Health 3(3) p.47-54. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Ellsberg, M., Ovince, J., Murphy, M., Blackwell, A., Reddy, D., Stennes, J.& Contreras, M. (2020). No safe place: Prevalence and correlates of violence against conflict-affected women and girls in South Sudan. PLoS one, 15(10), e0237965. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

IOM. (2013). Village Assessment Survey: Rumbek Centre County Atlas. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Peacebuilding Opportunities Fund. (2020). What drives the cattle camps? Exploring the dynamics of pastoralist communities in western Lakes State, South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. and Wal, G. (2021). Law, War and Returns: Learning from South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

RESCUE (2017). No Safe Place: A lifetime of violence for conflict-affected women and girls in South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2014). Conflict Analysis: Lakes, Northern Bahr El Gazhal and Warrap States. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Saferworld. (2023). Conflict, gender-based violence and mental health in Lakes State: Perspectives from South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.