Tonj East County, Warrap State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 116,122
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 405,663
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 184,757

Ethnic groups: Luac-Jang/Luanyjang Dinka (Nyangrup, Chierrup, Nyangwiir, Chiertoc), Rek Dinka (Akook, Aliap, Jalwau Luac-Koth, Thiik)**

Displacement Figures Q3 2022: 29,534 IDPs (-7,237 Q1 2020) and 22,695 returnees (+21,394 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Emergency (Phase 4); IPC Projections: December 2022 to March 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4); April to July 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Tonj East County is located in Warrap State. It borders Tonj South County to the south-west and Tonj North County to the north. It also borders Unity State (Mayendit County) to the east and Lakes State (Rumbek North and Cueibet counties) to the south-east.

The county is part of the Western Flood Plains livelihood zone (FEWSNET 2018). The area is rich in grazing land and water points, and this has attracted pastoralist communities to the county during the dry season. Swampy plains form a permeable natural geographic boundary between different Dinka communities in Warrap and Lakes States and with Nuer in Unity State. The River Tonj continues northwards from Tonj South, through Tonj East to Tonj North and Unity State to join the River Bahr el-Ghazal. Tonj East was affected by flooding in both 2020 and 2021. In 2021 it was identified as a flood-affected county by the Emergency Response Coordination Centre.

A study by FAO and WFP (2018) indicates that 65% of households engage in farming, declining to 60% by 2021 (FAO/WFP 2022). Planting is conducted during the rainy season, though some cultivation also occurs during summer. The main crops are sorghum, simsim (sesame), millet, groundnut peas, okra and pumpkin. In 2021 and 2022, gross cereal yields were estimated to be 0.6 tonnes per hectare (FAO/WFP 2023). While ideal for cattle herding, the landscape is very difficult to transverse by road. Most towns are more than 50 km apart, across difficult terrain, leaving the border grazing areas remote and making Tonj East one of the least developed counties in Warrap State.  Livestock ownership is widespread in Tonj East. Pastoralists throughout Tonj East – like others from Tonj South, Abyei, and Lakes/Unity States – migrate during the dry season in search of water in various parts of the northeastern and eastern Warrap State.

In November 2022, the IPC projected Tonj East County as being at an emergency (IPC level 4) level of food insecurity, with conditions projected to persist at the same level until at least July 2023. The IPC Global Support Unit released an additional report from the Famine Review Committee indicating that 5% of the Tonj East population was likely experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) levels of acute food insecurity in November 2020.

In addition to local trade routes, Tonj East has also historically maintained trade routes with Unity State, however, this has been negatively impacted by the militarization of Mayom County, and the participation of several militias from that area in the civil war. The rainy season also makes roads difficult to travel on, making the trade of goods in the market challenging, particularly for households that have depleted their food stores. The county’s primary markets are located in Palal, Ngap-Agok, and Romic.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES

The county’s headquarters are located in Romic in Paliang Payam. The local infrastructure and services in Tonj East have been disrupted by inter-communal violence and subsequent revenge attacks, which subsequently hindered development. The roads in the county are difficult to travel on during the rainy season, making the movement of people and goods challenging.

Tonj East’s educational facilities do not meet all the educational needs of the youth of the county. However, Tonj East is home to forty-eight (48) primary schools as well as one (1) secondary school (Romic Secondary in Paliang Payam). Tonj East does not have any Early Childhood Development centres operating within the county.

Tonj East County was reported to have fifteen (15) health facilities, fourteen (14) of which were reported to be functional in 2022. Among them are eleven (11) PHCUs and three (3) PHCCs. This means that there were an estimated 0.89 PHCUs per 15,000 people and .81 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO. No hospitals were reported to Tonj East County. The county has faced healthcare challenges in recent years, according to WHO, with outbreaks of cholera in 2017, measles outbreaks in 2020, and cases of guinea worm reported.

According to OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023, there are approximately 129,300 people with humanitarian needs in the county (down from 154,900 in 2021), which represents around 70% of the estimated population for Tonj East County reported in the HNO.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Insecurity in Tonj East often resembles conflicts in neighbouring Tonj North and South counties, though Tonj East’s geographical position along the borders of both Lakes and Unity state – alongside its distinctive political and clan dynamics – means the causes and trajectory of conflict can take dissimilar forms. Unlike Tonj South and Tonj North, Tonj East has not produced substantial numbers of elites in Juba, whilst the county is politically and socio-economically marginal within Warrap State. Divided between the Greater Ananatak sections (Akook, Aliap, Jalwau, Luac-Koth, Thiik) of the Rek Dinka (who are the largest clan within Warrap State, with a strong presence in national political and security institutions) in the western areas of the county, and the Luac-Jang/Luanyjang clan in the east, disputes between elements of the two communities have at times resulted in serious instances of violent conflict. Moreover, the Luac-Jang clan have been embroiled in periodic conflict and raiding with parts of the neighbouring Haak Nuer of Unity State’s Mayendit County, and with parts of the Dinka Agar and Gok clans of northern Lakes State (Craze 2022, pp. 54-55). As is discussed further in the profile for Rumbek North County, serious conflict broke out between parts of the Jalwau section of the Rek Dinka and the Pakam section of the Dinka Agar in 1998.

As discussed in further detail in the profiles for Tonj North and South counties, what may appear to be ‘inter-communal conflicts’ in Greater Tonj are often closely connected to the politics of Juba. Though such violence is often presented as taking the form of sequential ‘cattle raids’, ‘revenge killings’ or ‘land disputes’, such accounts rarely explain the forces at work in producing or intensifying violent conflict (Craze 2022; UN Panel of Experts 2020; Watson 2023). Violence linked to cattle raiding or disputes around administrative borders or grazing land has become increasing difficult to distinguish from conflicts that are linked to elite rivalries, and in the wake of the 2018 R-ARCSS the fusion of localised and national sources of conflict has resulted in both a militarisation of disputes and heightened levels of conflict.

For example, in 2020, instability within parts of South Sudan’s security establishment played out in the form of a disarmament campaign in and around Tonj East, with the UN Panel of Experts (2020, pp.12-13) alleging the involvement of a number of senior elites and commanders from the Greater Bahr el-Ghazal area. This disarmament campaign emerged in the context of reported rivalries among some senior elites and the support they have provided to competing armed groups in the area (Craze 2022, p.36). The campaign culminated in the deaths of a reported 148 people following a two-day confrontation between armed groups affiliated with different security institutions and communities in and around Romic town in Tonj East County (UN Panel of Experts 2020, p.13). Humanitarian access and supply routes to Tonj East were reported to have been blocked in the aftermath of the fighting, with access also being blocked following clashes between Luac-Jang and Greater Ananatak sections later in 2020 (Craze 2022, p.37, 55).

Although national and subnational agendas have played an increasing role in shaping conflict dynamics in Tonj East localised drivers of conflict such as competition over natural resources such as water and pasture continue to shape patterns of conflict in parallel to this. However, the relationships between communities and key natural resources – like relative high ground, pastures, and water points – is highly dynamic and informed by both historical legacies and contemporary issues. In reality, it is rare that an absolute scarcity in resources leads to violence: it is more often the real or perceived exclusion and threat of exclusion from key resources that drives violence. Such conflicts have been particularly acute when involving elements of the Rek and Luac-Jang Dinka clans, notably in disputed grazing areas along the border between Tonj North and East. In October 2015, it was reported that 92 people were killed in clashes between militias from the two clans over control of grazing land at Lolith along the Tonj North border (Radio Tamazuj 2015; Sudan Tribune 2015). Meanwhile, brewing tensions culminated in an attack in the border area of Marial Lou in July 2021, with armed elements targeting humanitarian facilities (Eye Radio 2021). In October 2021, a further flare-up of violence resulted in at least 30 people being killed and 80 injured (Radio Tamazuj 2021).

Additionally, violence motivated by revenge for previous killings or for the perceived breach of customs or agreements can flourish in the absence of effective or impartial judicial mechanisms. At least 40 people were killed in fighting among two Luac-Jang sections in September 2014, after the alleged abduction of a women (which may have been an elopement) (Radio Tamazuj 2014). Meanwhile, in October 2023 intra-Luac-Jang violence relating to an unresolved grievance dating back to 2006 killed six people (Radio Tamazuj 2023). This fragmentation within the Luac-Jang community has complicated peacebuilding and reconciliation initiatives in the area.

Although intermittent cross-border raiding has occurred along the border with some mostly Nuer communities from Mayendit County, particularly severe violence has been linked to cross-border disputes along the borders with Cueibet and (especially) Rumbek North counties of Lakes State. Parts of the pastoralist community from the Pakam section of the Dinka Agar clan (based in Rumbek North) have been engaged in cattle raids and counter-raids with parts of the Luac-Jang community, with over 90 people killed during serious violence in April 2008 (UNSC 2008). In March 2018, cross-border raiding involving parts of the Dinka Agar and Greater Ananatak section reportedly killed 22 people (UNSC 2018). More recently, clashes between parts of the Luac-Jang and Pakam section escalated significantly along the border between Tonj East and Rumbek North in 2023, with communities from other parts of Greater Tonj reported to have supported the Pakam section. A report from the UNSC estimated that 143 people were killed during the conflict in February, with a further 76 killed in April (UNSC 2023, p.4). iolence reportedly resumed in early 2024, killing at least 20 people (Radio Tamazuj 2024).

Such conflicts have occurred despite a number of peace reconciliation meetings in recent years, which have sought to improve understanding and communication between border communities and to decrease cattle raiding. This builds on a tradition of cross-border and cross-community peacemaking, including the famous 1999 Wunlit Peace Conference which took place in Tonj East (Amuom 2021).

While communities in Tonj East were not directly exposed to violence in the context of the 2013-2018 civil war, insecurity in the area has accelerated since the signing of the R-ARCSS due to militarization, changes in administrative and political representation, and a lack of rule of law. Recruitment from Greater Tonj into different – and sometimes competing – security institutions increased in late 2018 and 2019 has similarly contributed to the militarization of the region (Boswell 2019, p.13; UN Panel of Experts 2019, p.12). An unintended effect of the R-ARCSS was to increase political tension in certain parts of the country as a result of the formulas used to allocate positions under the agreement, which resulted in some government strongholds (including Warrap State) being required to apportion a limited number of administrative and political posts to opposition groups. In Warrap, Tonj East (as well as Twic County) received SPLA-IO county commissioners, with the SPLA-IO able to expand its influence in Warrap via such appointments (Craze 2023). The elevated levels of competition and militarisation present potentially complicating factors for the forthcoming national elections scheduled for late 2024 in Warrap and Tonj East in particular.

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams listed in government and UN documents: Paliang (County Headquarters in Romic), Ananatak, Makuac, Palal, Paweng, Wunlit

Additional payams listed by local actors: Ayok, Ayaak, Malualcum, Maparah, Pagor, Pan-nhial

UN OCHA 2020 map of Tonj East County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-tonj-east-county-reference-map-march-2020

Roads:

• No primary roads run through Tonj East County.
• A secondary road passes runs from Thiet (Tonj South County) to Kashwal, before separating into two tertiary roads. One of these roads runs north to Marial-Lou (Tonj North County) and the other runs east to southern Unity State via Romic. Seasonal road conditions are unknown.

UNHAS-recognised Heli and Fixed-Wing Airplane Airstrips: None

REFERENCES

Amuom, M. (2021). What Happened at Wunlit? Reliving South Sudan’s Most Successful Peace Conference. Rift Valley Institute. Retrieved 1 November 2023.

Boswell, A. (2019). Insecure Power and Violence: The Rise and Fall of Paul Malong and the Mathiang Anyoor. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Craze, J. (2022). ‘And Everything Became War:’ Warrap State Since the Signing of the R-ARCSS. Small Arms Survey/HSBA. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Craze, J. (2023). ‘Manhiem’s Mission: Power and Violence in Warrap State’. Retrieved 31 October 2023.

Eye Radio (2021). U.S. condemns looting of nutrition, food aid in Tonj areas. Retrieved 1 November 2023.

FAO/WFP. (2023). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 31 July 2023. See equivalent versions of the CFSAM report online for data from previous years.

IPC. (2020). IPC Famine Review: Conclusions and Recommendations for Pibor County – South Sudan – IPC Analysis – November 2020. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

IOM DTM. (2020). South Sudan: Tonj East County, Warrap State Event Tracking Report, 6 May 2020. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2014). Warrap inter-clan fighting leaves dozens dead. Retrieved 1 November 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2015). Dozens wounded in inter-clan clashes in Warrap. Retrieved 1 November 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2021). Intercommunal clashes leave over 30 dead, 80 wounded in Tonj East. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2023). 6 killed, 9 wounded in Tonj East County. Retrieved 1 November 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2024). 20 killed, 34 wounded in Rumbek North County land dispute. Retrieved 1 February 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2010). Fighting in Warrap state leaves at least 139 dead. Retrieved 27 November 2023.

Sudan Tribune. (2015). Warrap deploys more troops after 92 killed in communal feud. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

UN Panel of Experts. (2019). Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan submitted pursuant to resolution 2428 (2018). Retrieved 19 October 2023.

UN Panel of Experts. (2020). Interim report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan submitted pursuant to resolution 2521 (2020) (S/2020/1141). Retrieved 20 July 2023.

UNSC. (2008). Report of the Secretary-General on the Sudan (23 July 2008), S/2008/485. Retrieved 18 October 2023.

UNSC. (2018). Report of the Secretary-General on South Sudan (covering the period from 17 February to 3 June 2018), S/2018/609. Retrieved 1 November 2023.

UNSC. (2023). Situation in South Sudan: Report of the Secretary-General, 13 June 2023. Retrieved 20 July 2023.

Watson, D. (2023). Rethinking Inter-Communal Violence in Africa. Civil Wars. Retrieved 19 October 2023.

REPORTS on TONJ EAST

Craze, J. (2022). ‘And Everything Became War:’ Warrap State Since the Signing of the R-ARCSS. Small Arms Survey/HSBA. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

New Humanitarian. (2022). Interlocking crises: Why humanitarian needs keep increasing in South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Nsubuga, F. et al. (2019). Epidemiological description of a protracted cholera outbreak in Tonj East and Tonj North counties, former Warrap State, South Sudan, May-Oct 2017. BMC infectious diseases, 19(1), 1-8. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. (2015). ‘“They Are Now Community Police”: Negotiating the Boundaries and Nature of the Government in South Sudan through the Identity of Militarised Cattle-keepers’, International Journal on Minority and Group Rights, 22(3), 410-434. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2023). Conflict shocks and underlying vulnerability: Regulation of mobility and disruption of livelihoods in Tonj East, 2018-2022. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

The Sudd Institute. (2013). Managing the Communal Violence in  Tonj East County. Retrieved 1 November 2023.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.

** Note: The sections of the Rek Dinka clan residing in Tonj East are collectively known as the ‘Greater Ananatak’.