Twic East County, Jonglei State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 85,349
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 51,269
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 124,352

Ethnic groups: Dinka Bor (Twic/Twic East: Pakeer; Ajuong; Nyuak; Lith)

Displacement Figures Q3 2022: 11,587 IDPs (+10,079 Q1 2020) and 4,390 returnees (-2,429 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Emergency (Phase 4); IPC Projections: December 2022 to March 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4); April to July 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Twic East County is located on the western edge of Jonglei State. It borders Duk County to the north, Uror County to the east, Bor South County to the south, and Lakes and Unity States to the west. The White Nile and several tributary rivers flow along Twic East’s western border. The area immediately around the Nile is characterized by swampy vegetation of papyrus, reeds, Napier/elephant grass and bush scrub. The area further east is characterized by flood plains and bush.

Twic East County is part of the eastern plains, sorghum and cattle livelihood zone (FEWSNET 2018), with the FAO and WFP (2018) estimating that 40% of households in the county engage in agriculture, declining to 25% by 2021. Gross cereal yields were reported at 0.3 tonnes per hectare in 2021 (making it the joint lowest producing county in the country, alongside Ayod), with no data available for 2022 (FAO/WFP 2022; FAO/WFP 2023). The main crops grown are sorghum, maize, groundnut and cowpeas. Livelihoods are supplemented by fishing, wild food gathering, and livestock rearing.

The Nile is a major transport route and resource asset for Twic East County. Livestock normally move towards the Nile between February and April and return to homesteads from May to June. Floods are a significant hazard as they can limit fishing activities and reduce crop, livestock, and wild foods production (particularly water lilies). Additionally, cattle raids, livestock diseases, crop pests and drought are major factors affecting livelihoods.

IPC projections for Twic East County are at Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4) of food insecurity as of November 2022, and are project to remain at Emergency levels until at least July 2023. Violence in December 2013, as well as flooding in November 2013 and 2019 (and again in 2020 and 2021), imperilled livelihoods and resulted in in large-scale population displacements in the county Residents of Twic East and neighbouring affected counties have described the flooding as some of the worst in its duration and intensity since the 1960s, with widespread damage to crops, houses, and livestock. Many IDPs from Twic East travelled southwards to establish a new IDP presence at Mangalla in Juba County.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES

The infrastructure and services of Twic East County are centralized in its headquarters of Panyagor (Kongor Payam). These are inaccessible for many of those living in more rural areas of other payams, particularly during the rainy season when even traveling short distances is laborious. Additionally, as airstrips in nearby areas such as Duk become inoperable in the rainy season, organizations and private transportation companies have increasingly begun to rely on the Mabior airstrip to access neighbouring counties.

Twic East County is home to one (1) early childhood development centre, thirty-five (35) primary schools and three secondary schools, including the Dr John Garang Secondary School in Kongor Payam.

Twic East County was reported to have fifteen (15) health facilities, fourteen of which were reported to be functional. Among them are eight (8) PHCUs and six (6) PHCCs in 2022. This means that there were an estimated 0.48 PHCUs per 15,000 people and 2.01 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO, which ranks Twic East as among the ten counties with the lowest ratios of PHCUs/person in South Sudan. No hospitals were reported in Twic East County. The centralization of healthcare facilities in the main town has made it difficult for those in more rural areas to access such services.

According to OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023, there are over 116,000 people with significant humanitarian needs in Twic East (up from 109,000 in 2021), which represents 93% of the estimated population of the county reported in the HNO. The flooding since 2019 has impacted infrastructure, with water supply, sanitation and education institutions severely disrupted, and the destruction of homes leading to a movement of IDPs from Twic East and elsewhere to live amongst the host community in Panyagor. The breach of multiple primary dykes in Pakeer, Ajuong, Nyuak, Lith and Kongor payams highlighted the severity of the flooding and has led to a protracted humanitarian situation that extended into 2021.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Twic East is the home of late SPLM/A leader Dr John Garang de Mabior and his wife, Rebecca Nyandeng de Mabior as well as former Deputy Defence Minister Majak d’Agoot, one of the former SPLM Detainees. Although Twic East Dinka communities have a long history of SPLM/A allegiance, this allegiance has been tested in recent years by the competing political priorities of the Twic East Dinka, alongside alliances with other communities with strained or antagonistic relations with the SPLM/A. This includes the localised alliances reached between Twic East Dinka communities and nearby Nuer communities.

Despite recent cooperative relations between the Twic East Dinka and neighbouring Nuer clans, the relationship remains influenced by a deep sense of mistrust due to historical animosity resulting from widespread ethnicised violence that occurred during the course of the second Sudanese civil war (1983-2005). Twic East’s Kongor town (along with Ayod and Waat) formed a corner of the ‘hunger triangle’ in Jonglei, where the combination of conflict and food insecurity led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people in 1992 and 1993, following the fracturing of the SPLM/A into contending factions in 1991 (HRW 2001). Relationships between parts of the Dinka and Nuer communities in central Jonglei State deteriorated during the early 1990s, with Lou Nuer pastoralists unable to graze cattle in traditionally Dinka-majority areas (PACT Sudan 2006, p.111).

After the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, Twic East was increasingly affected by inter-sectional fighting among parts of its Dinka communities (Harrigan 2011; Sudan Tribune 2011). Relations between Twic East’s Dinka communities and nearby Lou Nuer communities were also affected by intermittent episodes of violence, including a serious incident in August 2009 (Sudan Tribune 2009). During the CPA (2005-2011) and particularly in the early post-independence eras, relations between communities from Duk and Pibor counties (discussed below) also experienced deteriorations amid escalating cross-border conflict (Africa Confidential 2012; Rands and LeRiche 2012).

More co-operative relations between the Dinka and Nuer communities were partly enabled by the August 2011 apology from Dr Riek Machar for the 1991 Bor Massacre, which he made publicly in Twic East. The alliance between elements of the two communities also relates to power shifts within the SPLM/A, in which loyalists to John Garang (many of whom were from Jonglei State) lost prominence and power was consolidated around elites from the Greater Bahr el-Ghazal Dinka after the death of John Garang (ICG 2014).

In the early stages of the national conflict (2013-2018), Twic East Dinka leaders made a non-aggression pact with the Nuer white armies as they moved through the area towards Bor and Juba in late 2013 (ICG 2014). However, some Twic East Dinka youth participated in the defence of Duk County in April 2014, supporting Dinka youth fighting against armed groups from parts of Ayod County’s Gawaar Nuer community. During their advance on Bor and Juba, the SPLA-IO and affiliated Nuer white armies initially made rapid progress, though the SLPA (with support from the Ugandan military) were able to consolidate control of Bor town by late January 2014. By April 2014, the SPLA and Ugandan forces swept through Bor and into Twic East and Duk before taking Ayod. Many Dinka fled south into Twic East to reach Bor or cross the Nile into Lakes State. While Twic East remains an SPLM stronghold, mobilisation of Dinka communities from Jonglei into the SPLA/SSPDF has been limited, especially in comparison to Dinka communities in Upper Nile State, reflecting how communities balance national and local interests and alliances in ways that are not mutually exclusive.

Relations between Twic East Dinka and Murle communities have historically been strained, with clashes and accusations of abductions and cattle theft dating back to before the outbreak of the national conflict The tendency to attribute attacks in and around Jonglei to the Murle, and the effects of generalisations about the Murle by other communities, is discussed further in the profile for Pibor County. Since the signing of the 2018 R-ARCSS, violence has intensified between the groups. Between January and August 2020, renewed conflict allegedly involving Dinka, Nuer and Murle organized forces and community-based militias led to the killing and wounding of at least 1,058 people (UNMISS/OHCHR 2021). Cattle raiding, looting and destruction of private and public property (including humanitarian facilities) was also documented in many of these incidents. A 2021 UNMISS/OHCHR report drew attention to allegations of support offered by different branches of the security services to different parties involved in the fighting, with Dinka elites from different geographical regions and political allegiances reported to be supporting the warring parties (UNMISS/OHCHR 2021, pp. 10-11).

In early 2021 some progress was made in bringing together Murle, Lou Nuer and Dinka Bor communities as part of the Pieri peace process to avoid a re-escalation of conflict, with the return of abducted children seen as a significant step forward in building trust between communities. However, these efforts by the government and international partners to address subnational violence in Jonglei in 2021 have had mixed success overall. Attacks and cattle raiding have continued in spite of the agreement, with small-scale raids into Twic East (allegedly conducted by Murle raiders) threatening to undermine livelihoods and the fragile stability. Large-scale fighting resumed In December 2022 and January 2023 with renewed raids by alleged Dinka and Nuer militia into Pibor County, with at least 308 people reported killed and nearly 300 people abducted (UNMISS/HRD 2023). These dynamics are discussed in more detail in the Pibor county profile.

Flooding and regular insecurity along the road to Bor has impeded Twic East’s consistent access to markets and aid. To the far east of the county, persistent ambushes have been reported in the Gadiang area along the road between Bor and Akobo in 2022 and 2023, with humanitarian convoys often being targeted (Craze 2023). The identity of the attackers is unconfirmed.

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams: Kongor (County Headquarters), Ajuong, Lith, Nyuak, Pakeer

UN OCHA 2020 map of Twic East County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-twic-east-county-reference-map-march-2020

Roads:

• A primary road runs north-south through Twic East County, connecting Bor town in the south to Canal town (in Canal/Pigi County) to the north. The road was deemed impassable between Bor town and the junction at Ayod County in both the rainy season of 2022 and dry season of 2023. The condition of the remaining parts of the road running north from the junction to Canal are unknown.
• A primary road running from Bor town north-east to Akobo town (via Gadiang) cuts through Twic East County. This road was also deemed impassable during the rainy season of 2022, and passable with difficulty only between Bor and Gadiang in the dry season of 2023, with the remainder of the road deemed impassable.
• Two tertiary roads run parallel to one another in a north-south direction, covering western areas of the county. These connect to the primary road at Kongor town. The condition of these roads is unknown.
• Road security – In 2023 there have been a significant number of humanitarian convoys being intercepted and looted by unknown armed groups whilst travelling in the Gadiang area.

UNHAS-Recognized Heli-Landing Sites and Airstrips: Mabior

REFERENCES

Africa Confidential. (2012). A political and military test. Retrieved 12 March 2024.

Craze, J. (2023). A Pause Not a Peace: Conflict in Jonglei and the GPAA. Small Arms Survey/HSBA. Retrieved 17 July 2023

FAO/WFP. (2023). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 31 July 2023. See equivalent versions of the CFSAM report online for data from previous years.

FEWSNET. (2018). Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for the Republic of South Sudan (Updated). Retrieved 10 July 2023.

HRW. (2001). Sudan: Analysis of the Current Fighting and its Relation to Famine. Retrieved 29 September 2023.

ICG, International Crisis Group. (2014). South Sudan: Jonglei – “We Have Always Been at War”. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

IRNA. (2020). Flood and conflict affected residents/IDPs in Twic East County, Jonglei State. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

PACT Sudan. (2006). Sudan Peace Fund (SPF): Final Report October 2022 – December 2005. USAID.

Rands, R.B. and LeRiche, M. (2012). Security responses in Jonglei State in the aftermath of inter-ethnic violence. Saferworld. Retrieved 12 March 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2009). Over 40 people kill in Jonglei attack. Retrieved 12 March 2024.

Sudan Tribune. (2011). Jonglei: At least 14 killed and 37 injured in land dispute in Twic East County. Retrieved 12 March 2024.

UNMISS/HRD. (2023). Brief on Violence Affecting Civilians: January – March 2023. Retrieved 29 September 2023.

UNMISS/OHCHR. (2021). Armed Violence Involving Community-Based Militia in Greater Jonglei: January-August 2020. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

REPORTS on TWIC EAST

Beswick, S. (2004). Sudan’s Blood Memory: The Legacy of War, Ethnicity, and Slavery in South Sudan. Rochester, NY: University of Rochester Press.

Gordon, R. (2014). In the eye of the storm: An analysis of internal conflict in South Sudan’s Jonglei State. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Harrigan, S. (2011). South Sudan: Waiting for Peace to Come. Study from Bor, Twic East & Duk Counties in Jonglei. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Harrigan, S. and Chol, C.C. (1998). The Southern Sudan Vulnerability Study. Retrieved via Sudan Open Archive on 12 March 2024.

International Crisis Group. (2014). South Sudan: Jonglei – “We Have Always Been at War”. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Panchol, D. N., & Muhindi, S. (2019). Analysis of Insecurity Dynamics on Socio-economic Development in Twic East County, Jonglei State, South Sudan. Journal of African Interdisciplinary Studies, 3(9), 61-68. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

Quist, A. (2022). Human Security Survey: Summary findings from Jonglei State, South Sudan. PAX. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

UNMISS. (2012). Incidents of Inter-Communal Violence in Jonglei State. Retrieved 17 July 2023.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.