Gogrial West County, Warrap State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 243,921
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 582,379
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 326,541

Ethnic groups: Rek Dinka (Aguok: Agurpiny, Ajak, Atutkuel, Buothanyith, Marial, Monydit, Ngokabayen, Ngokayaric, Ngokkuec, Pakalagep, Pakallol, and Wuny), Rek Dinka (Kuac), Rek Dinka (Awan: Awan-Chan, Awan-Mou)

Displacement Figures Q3 2022: 34,581 IDPs (-7,333 Q1 2020) and 83,491 returnees (+63,329 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Emergency (Phase 4); IPC Projections: December 2022 to March 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4); April to July 2023 – Emergency (Phase 4)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Gogrial West County is located in Warrap State. It borders Twic County to the north and Gogrial East County to the east. It also borders Western Bahr el-Ghazal State (Jur River County) to the south and Northern Bahr el-Ghazal State (Aweil South and Aweil East Counties) to the west.

The county falls under the western floodplain sorghum and cattle livelihoods zone (FEWSNET 2018). Gogrial West is primarily constituted of flat grasslands. High water table and swamps areas in the county are good for raising livestock but can make access difficult, particularly in the rainy season. Two rivers cross through Gogrial West: River Jur flows north through the county before turning east, and the River Lol flows across the northern part of Gogrial West.

The majority of communities in Gogrial West are agro-pastoralist, engaged in animal husbandry (37%), subsistence farming (37%), and fishing (22%) (IOM 2013). A more recent report from FAO and WFP (2018) estimates that 80% of households engage in agriculture, a figure which remained the same in 2021. Planting is conducted during the rainy season and the main crops are maize, sorghum, sesame, groundnuts, vegetables and millet. In 2021, gross cereal yields were estimated to be 0.96 tonnes per hectare (FAO/WFP 2022), increasing to 1 tonne per hectare in 2022 (FAO/WFP 2023).

Pastoralists throughout the state migrate during the dry season, in search of water in various parts of the northeastern and eastern Warrap State. While Gogrial West is not as affected by water and migration disputes as its northern and eastern neighbours, periodic fighting between the Aguok, Kuac and Apuk sections in Gogrial East has disrupted livelihoods in the past. The Aguok have no significant toic (seasonally flooded grassland) and therefore have long sought access to the toic in Gogrial East for grazing. Whilst the Kuac have access to a smaller toic to the south, they often prefer the toic of Gogrial East due to the quality of the grass and the lack of disease.

Kuajok is the main market for both the county and Warrap State, however in recent years inflation has caused goods in the market to become unaffordable for many residents. Proximity to the Sudanese border presents opportunities to access supplies from Abyei; however, regular insecurity and displacement have frequently obstructed commercial progress. Supplies from Rumbek and Juba are also vulnerable to internal conflict, seasonal flooding, and poor road conditions. All three challenges have limited market access and imperilled food security in recent years.

In November 2022, the IPC projected Gogrial West County as being at an emergency (IPC level 4) level of food insecurity, with conditions projected to persist at the same level until at least July 2023.A 2020 REACH Assessment found residents in 33% of assessed settlements in Gogrial West were coping with a lack of food by consuming wild foods that are known to make people sick and residents in 76% of assessed shelters classified the hunger they were experiencing as severe or the worst it can be. Residents in 97% of assessed settlements were selling livestock to cope with the lack of food, though this declined to 22% by 2022 (REACH 2022).

In 2021 Gogrial West was identified as a flood-affected county by the Emergency Response Coordination Centre. The flooding in the Gogrial West County started early June 2021 in Akon South Payam, and the entirety of Warrap was inundated with heavy rainfalls until mid-September 2021. Homes were destroyed, high caseloads of malaria and diarrheal diseases were recorded, and livestock disease outbreaks were reported.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES

Gogrial West hosts Warrap State’s capital, Kuajok, and the county headquarters is in Gogrial Town. Many primary healthcare units were damaged in 2017 due to insecurity, which has weakened the local healthcare infrastructure. Water sources are limited in the county, and are often shared with livestock, potentially contributing to the spread of disease (REACH 2019a; REACH 2019b).

OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023 estimated that over 220,600 people had humanitarian needs in Gogrial West (up significantly from 190,800 in 2021), placing considerable pressure on local infrastructure and services. This figure represents over 67% of the estimated population for the county reported in the HNO. In 2020, the county was identified as one of fourteen counties in South Sudan with the highest level (“extreme”) of GBV needs.

Gogrial West is home to five (5) Early Childhood Development centres, one hundred and ninety-nine (199) primary schools and sixteen (16) secondary schools located throughout the county. Twic County has among the largest number of primary schools in the country, though still well behind Juba County’s 331.

Gogrial West County was reported to have thirty-seven (37) health facilities, thirty-six (36) of which were reported to be functional. Among the functional health facilities, there are twenty-four (24) PHCUs, eleven (11) PHCCs and one (1) hospital in 2022. This means that there were an estimated 1.10 PHCUs per 15,000 people and 1.69 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO. Kuajok Hospital was reported to be moderately functional.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Greater Gogrial was historically regarded as a particularly isolated area of Greater Bahr el-Ghazal, and was belatedly and partially integrated into British colonial administration, with only a limited colonial presence in the area (Cormack 2014). Despite this historical perception and the geographical remoteness of Gogrial, elites from Gogrial – alongside their counterparts from the comparatively accessible Greater Tonj area – have come to play a profound role in South Sudanese politics, including President Salva Kiir who is from Akon in Gogrial West.

Gogrial was particularly affected during the first and second Sudanese civil wars (1955-1972 and 1983-2005), through both direct violence by Sudanese police forces and military, and raiding by government-aligned Sudanese Misseriya militias. As the second war progressed, multiple rounds of fighting between the SPLM/A and Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) created conditions for famine in the late 1980s and in 1998, with the Sudanese government maintaining control over the town for most of the war and intra-SPLM/A factional disputes having an acute effect on physical and food security in the area during the late 1990s (Cormack 2014; Madut-Arop 2006). During the 1990s, the Mayen Rual common market contributed to harmonious relations between the Apuk, Kuac, and Aguok sections of the Rek Dinka, though the market has declined since the end of the war in 2005 (Pendle and Madut Anei 2018). Since this time, two rounds of serious internal conflict among Dinka sections have affected the area (in 2007-2008 and 2015-2017), whilst cross-border violence with parts of the Nuer community of Unity State (particularly from Mayom County) have resulted in several phases of lethal cattle raiding.

Although Gogrial was not directly affected by the national conflict (2013-2018), the government recruited heavily from the area in 2014, with the SSPDF and National Security Service (NSS) also reportedly engaged in significant recruitment after the R-ARCSS in 2018 (Boswell 2019; UN Panel of Experts 2019). Alleged SSPDF recruitment in late 2018 and early 2019 laid the foundation for the establishment of the new 11^th Division of the army. Despite the alleged extensive recruitment of youth from Greater Gogrial, resistance to recruitment was also reported following the outbreak of the national conflict (McCrone 2021, pp.10-11). The UN Human Rights Commission has also reported that forced recruitment and abductions of children occurred during post-R-ARCSS recruitment in the Gogrial area (UN HRC 2020, pp. 12-13, 26-27).

As with Greater Tonj, the centrality of elites from Gogrial in the politics of Juba has not been associated with significant improvements in social or economic infrastructure within Greater Gogrial, and has created a number of vulnerabilities to conflict owing to the interaction between elites operating at the local and national levels. Elites from Warrap have particularly strong access to both the government and resources from Juba, which derives in part from the level of support and new recruits delivered to the national government and security services over many decades, including during the 2013-2018 national conflict. However, since the signing of the R-ARCSS in 2018, elite competition in Juba has informed conflict in much of Warrap, including in Gogrial West.

Border and land disputes have been a particular focal point for conflict in Greater Gogrial. However, rather than being purely localised phenomenon, land and boundary issues are in part an expression of elite competition for control over administrative and land-based resources (Craze 2022, pp.21-25; de Waal and Pendle 2019, pp.190-191; McCrone 2021, p.13). The contestation of land and boundaries in Gogrial West emerged as a direct result of changes to political ordering surrounding the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the 2011 declaration of independence. In 2004, Greater Gogrial was divided into Gogrial East and Gogrial West counties, with Twic county having been previously separated out. Although the division was a government decision justified by the argument that Greater Gogrial was too large, the division was also interpreted in some communities as an assertion of power of the Apuk section. In addition to contributing to serious conflict in 2007 and 2008, the division of these counties created disputes over boundaries that continue today.

In recent years, Gogrial West has been less exposed to the kinds of cross-border cattle raids and conflict that has affected Gogrial East. However, a dispute of ownership of Nyinakook (in Western Bahr el-Ghazal State’s Jur River County) involving elements of the Apuk section from Gogrial West and the community who settled in Nyinakook has been the source of intermittent violent conflict (Pendle and Madut Anei 2018). Gogrial West’s border with Aweil South has also been disputed (UNMISS 2014). Despite intra-Dinka conflicts in Gogrial West being infrequent when compared to much of post-R-ARCSS Warrap State, recent land disputes have nevertheless occurred. This includes low-level fighting in 2022 over control of Korou village (Radio Tamazuj 2022), and a dispute that resulted in local administrative buildings being torched at Kuac-Achinydit in May 2023 (The Radio Community 2023). More recently, fighting over grazing land was reported to have killed five people in December 2023 (Eye Radio 2023).

Pastoralists from Gogrial West are among those from Warrap State who cross into Western Bahr el-Ghazal State during the dry season. Cattle migration has been associated with tensions between various sections of the Rek Dinka and parts of the Luo of Jur River County, with violence between the two communities in recent years tending to involve SSPDF and SPLA-IO elements on either side. Following extensive negotiations, the Marial Bai Agreement was signed in 2016 to help regulate the movement of pastoralist communities in the area, whilst establishing restrictions on the carrying of firearms into Western Bahr el-Ghazal. The agreement also established the compensation to be paid for damage caused to crops by cattle, and for the killing of cattle by farmers (VNG International, n.d.). This contributed to increased stability and a reduction of violence in the border areas between the two states, though underlying grievances have not in all cases been adequately addressed. However, tensions have escalated into violent confrontation at several points following the signing of the agreement, most notably during the first half of 2019, as is discussed further in the profile for Jur River County (Eye Radio 2019). A review of the agreement was conducted in late 2019, and included provisions for a mobile court, while a subsequent review during the pre-migration conference in Kuajok in late 2021 drew attention to the need for the agreement to place greater emphasis upon gender-based violence and associated justice mechanisms (UNMISS 2021).

Historically, northern Warrap State has also been affected by disputes concerning the Abyei border. Abyei border disputes displaced of thousands in 2008-2009 and again in 2011, with thousands of refugees from Abyei settling temporarily in Gogrial West. In September 2015, delegations of the Dinka community from Gogrial West and Twic joined those from the Abyei area and Misseriya of Sudan in Aweil for a consultative conference. The dialogue aimed to restore the relationship with the Misseriya (Awald Kamil) of Sudan’s South Kordofan state and the Rek and Twic Dinka clans of Warrap State, and has eased tensions between the groups.

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams: Gogrial (County Headquarters), Alek South, Alek North, Alek West, Kuac North, Kuac South, Akon South, Akon North, Riau

UN OCHA 2020 map of Gogrial West County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-gogrial-west-county-reference-map-march-2020

Roads:

• The state capital Kuajok is connected by a primary road north-south from Wau in Western Bahr-el Ghazal State to Abyei and Mayom in Unity State, forking in Twic County. In the rainy season of 2022, the road was deemed passable between Wau and Wunrok/Wun Roj in Twic County, with the Abyei and Mayom branches both designated as being impassable. In the dry season of 2023, the branches were designated as being “passable with difficulties”.
• A road connects Kuajok to Lunyaker in Gogrial East, however seasonal conditions are unknown.

UNHAS-recognised Heli and Fixed-Wing Airplane Airstrips: Kuajok and Alek

REFERENCES

Boswell, A. (2019). Insecure Power and Violence: The Rise and Fall of Paul Malong and the Mathiang Anyoor. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Cormack, Z.T. (2014). The Making and Remaking of Gogrial: Landscape, history and memory in South Sudan. Doctoral thesis, Durham University. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Cormack, Z.T. (2017). The spectacle of death: visibility and concealment at an unfinished memorial in South Sudan. Journal of Eastern African Studies 11 (1), pp. 115–132. Retrieved 20 October 2023.

Craze, J. (2022). ‘And Everything Became War:’ Warrap State Since the Signing of the R-ARCSS. Small Arms Survey/HSBA. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Eye Radio. (2019). Governor calling for review of Marial-bai agreement. Retrieved 12 January 2024.

Eye Radio. (2023). Calm in Gogrial West after 5 killed in clashes over grazing land. Retrieved 5 January 2024.

FAO/WFP. (2023). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 31 July 2023. See equivalent versions of the CFSAM report online for data from previous years.

FEWSNET. (2018). Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for the Republic of South Sudan (Updated). Retrieved 10 July 2023.

IOM. (2013). Village Assessment Survey: Gogrial West County Atlas. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

IRNA. (2021). Gogrial West County IRNA report, 12 October 2021. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Madut-Arop, A. (2006). Sudan’s Painful Road to Peace: A Full Story of the Founding and Development of SPLM/SPLA. Booksurge Publishing.

McCrone, F. (2021). The war (s) in South Sudan: local dimensions of conflict, governance and the political marketplace. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

Radio Tamazuj. (2022). Land dispute claims 2 lives in Gogrial West county. Retrieved 15 March 2024.

REACH. (2019a). South Sudan – Food Security and Livelihoods (FSL). Assessment of Hard-to-Reach Areas in South Sudan. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2019b). Situation Overview: Greater Bahr el Ghazal, South Sudan. January – March 2019. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2020). Integrated Needs Tracking (INT) County Profile – Gogrial West County. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

REACH. (2022). Integrated Needs Tracking (INT) County Profiles. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

The Radio Community. (2023). Angry men set ablaze payam headquarters in Gogrial West. Retrieved 15 March 2024.

UN HRC. (2020). Report of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, A/HRC/43/56. Retrieved 20 October 2023.

UNMISS. (2014). Aweil South learns about peace and conflict resolution. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

UNMISS. (2021). To prepare for seasonal cattle movement, the UN family supports a pre-migration conference in Kuajok. Retrieved 12 January 2024.

VNG International (n.d.). Crops and Cows: The Potential of Cattle Migration Management in South Sudan. Retrieved 12 January 2024.de Waal, A. and Pendle, N. (2019). ‘Decentralisation and the logic of the political marketplace in South Sudan’ in Deng, L. and Logan, S. (eds) The Struggle for South Sudan: Challenges of Security and State Formation, 172–194. London: I.B. Tauris.

REPORTS on GOGRIAL WEST

Cormack, Z.T. (2014). The Making and Remaking of Gogrial: Landscape, history and memory in South Sudan. Doctoral thesis, Durham University. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Cormack, Z. (2016). Borders are galaxies: Interpreting contestations over local administrative boundaries in South Sudan. Africa, 86 (3), 504-527. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Diing, A. and Pendle, N. (2021). ‘I Kept My Gun’: Displacement’s Impact on Reshaping Social Distinction During Return, Journal of Refugee Studies, 33 (4), 791-812. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Harrigan, S. and Chol, C.C. (1998). The Southern Sudan Vulnerability Study. Retrieved via Sudan Open Archive on 12 March 2024.

Lawry, L., et al. (2017). A mixed methods assessment of barriers to maternal, newborn and child health in Gogrial West, South Sudan. Reproductive Health 14(12). Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. (2015). ‘“They Are Now Community Police”: Negotiating the Boundaries and Nature of the Government in South Sudan through the Identity of Militarised Cattle-keepers’, International Journal on Minority and Group Rights, 22(3), 410-434. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N.  (2018). ‘The dead are just to drink from’: recycling ideas of revenge among the western Dinka, South Sudan. Africa, 88 (1), 99-121. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. and Madut Anei, C. (2018). Wartime Trade and the Reshaping of Power in South Sudan: Learning from the market of Mayen Rual. Rift Valley Institute. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. (2023). Spiritual Contestations: The Violence of Peace in South Sudan. Rochester, NY: James Currey. Open access eBook retrieved 18 July 2023.

Pendle, N. (2023). Law and Famine: Learning from the Hunger Courts in South Sudan. Development and Change 54(3), 467–489. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

Saferworld. (2018). Communities tackling small arms and light weapons in South Sudan: lessons learnt and best practices. Retrieved 18 July 2023.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.