This memo summarizes observations and conclusions from the Conflict Research Programme/World Peace Foundation research on the political marketplace framework and humanitarian crises. It draws upon seven country-specific case studies (Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and on theoretical and cross-cutting analysis. Its primary focus is on food insecurity and famine, though other forms of humanitarian crisis (for instance, displacement) are also considered. Download
Entries by Alex de Waal
This paper examines the 1994 Declaration of Principles (DoP) for the resolution of the Sudanese civil war, adopted by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This was the only occasion on which an African inter-state organization included separation as an option for resolving a civil war. It was the basis for South Sudan’s independence in 2011. The DoP was drafted by the Ethiopian government, and imposed on belligerent parties, both of which were, at the…
International sponsors of South Sudan’s peace process should respond creatively to the delay in forming the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU). An intemperate response, which might include a new, immovable and near deadline or rapidly imposing sanctions, runs two risks. First, it jeopardizes the ceasefire—the truly substantial achievement of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Second, a deadline could be an opportunity for the government of Pres….
After a long-term decline in the frequency and lethality of famines, 2017 has witnessed resurgent international concern over the issue. This paper examines the trends in famine over the last 150 years, with particular attention to the fusion of famine with forcible mass starvation. It identifies four main historic periods of famines, namely: the zenith of European colonialism; the extended World War; post-colonial totalitarianism; and post-Cold War humanitarian emergencies; and asks whether we may be…
Analysis of the risks that South Sudan faces given the current convergent economic, security and political crises on the eve of the overdue establishment of the Transitional Government of National Unity. Download
The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa delves into the business of politics in the turbulent, war-torn countries of north-east Africa. It is a contemporary history of how politicians, generals and insurgents bargain over money and power, and use of war to achieve their goals. Drawing on a thirty-year career in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia, including experience as a participant in high-level peace talks, Alex de Waal provides a unique and compelling account…
This article explains political events in South Sudan since 2011 through the lens of a political marketplace. Link to publication
South Sudan obtained independence in July 2011 as a kleptocracy – a militarized, corrupt neo-patrimonial system of governance. By the time of independence, the South Sudanese “political marketplace” was so expensive that the country’s comparatively copious revenue was consumed by the military-political patronage system, with almost nothing left for public services, development or institution building. The efforts of national technocrats and foreign donors produced bubbles of institutional integrity but the system as a whole was…
This article identifies conflict drivers of the political/humanitarian crisis in South Sudan. Link to publication
This paper presents the ethnic and ideological factors in the Sudan crisis as products of other processes, notably the strategies adopted by successive governments for managing the peripheries and the militarisation of society. It differs from many scholarly analyses in its emphasis on the importance of failed consolidation at the centre of power. The implication of the analysis is that Sudan faces possibly insuperable challenges in attempting to achieve democracy and a fair distribution of…