Nagero County, Western Equatoria State

DEMOGRAPHY

2008 NBS Census population: 10,077
2021 NBS PES population estimate*: 26,738
2022 UN OCHA population estimate*: 61,561

Ethnic groups: Balanda, Bongo, Azande (plural)/Zande (singular)

Displacement Figures Q3 2022: 35,132 IDPs (+34,927 Q1 2020) and 21,307 returnees (-258 Q1 2020)

IPC Food Security: November 2022 – Crisis (Phase 3); IPC Projections: December 2022 to March 2023 – Crisis (Phase 3); April to July 2023 – Crisis (Phase 3)

ECONOMY & LIVELIHOODS

Nagero County is located in Western Equatoria State. It borders Tambura County to the south-west and Ezo County to the south-east. It also borders Northern Bahr el-Ghazal State (Wau and Jur River Counties) to the north and Warrap State (Tonj South County) to the east.

The county falls within the western plains groundnuts, sesame and sorghum livelihoods zone (FEWSNET 2018). It is estimated that 55% of households in Nagero County practice agriculture (FAO/WFP 2022), with a gross cereal yield of 1.10 tonnes per hectare in 2021, and declining to 1.0 tonnes per hectare in 2022 (FAO/WFP 2023). Other livelihood activities such as collecting wild food, harvesting honey, and fishing for domestic consumption are also common. The area has forests that can be used to export timber; however, the extent to which this contributes to the local economy is unknown. Nagero borders the Bahr el-Ghazal region where cattle keeping is common. Thus, seasonal livestock migrations see pastoralists from neighbouring Wau County migrate south through Nagero during the dry season, in search of grazing grounds and water sources.

Food security projections placed Nagero County at Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels for Q1 2022, which decreased to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level conditions by November 2022. These conditions are predicted to be maintained across the first half of 2023.) A September 2020 REACH assessment found troubling coping strategies were being practiced with residents in 83% of assessed settlements going days without eating while 33% were dealing with food scarcity by only having children eat. The use of such coping strategies declined markedly by September 2022, to 20% and 0%, respectively (REACH 2022).

INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES

The county headquarters and main market are in Nagero Town in Nagero Payam. While Nagero County itself is comparatively small in terms of its population and infrastructure, its proximity to Tambura and the Bahr el Ghazal region places it on key transportation and trade routes. Nagero’s location allows residents to access markets, schools and healthcare facilities in these nearby areas, despite not having strong infrastructure or services within the county itself.

While some schools may be temporarily closed for use as IDP shelters, Nagero County is home to eight (8) Early Childhood Development centres, fourteen (14) primary schools and one (1) secondary school located in Nagero payam.

Nagero was reported to have sixteen (16) health facilities including eleven (11) functional health facilities, among them nine (9) PHCUs and two (2) PHCCs in 2022. This means that there were an estimated 3.48 PHCUs per 15,000 people and 2.58 PHCCs per 50,000 people according to the WHO. No hospitals were reported in Nagero County.

According to OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2023, there are 56,545 people in the county with humanitarian needs (a significant increase from 19,600 in 2021), representing nearly 92% of the estimated population for Nagero County reported in that year’s HNO. The vast majority of those with significant needs were displaced persons from Tambura County, as well as returnees. Conflict-induced displacement from Nagero to neighbouring Tambura County was reported in 2018, though many of the displaced returned to Nagero the following year (REACH 2019a). However, fighting in Tambura County displaced a large number of IDPs into Nagero in August 2021, with around 35,000 IDPs present in Nagero County as of mid-2022.

This number is 2x the total population figure in the (obviously idiotic) PES. According to the 2024 HNO, the people in need is 21,469.

CONFLICT DYNAMICS

Remote, hard to reach and largely isolated from Yambio, A border dispute between Tambura and Nagero counties resulted in heightened tensions between elements of the area’s two major ethnic groups – the Balanda and Azande. The border dispute arose following redistricting in 2004 (Sudan Tribune 2012), and relations between the two communities are discussed further in the profile for Tambura County. Several community dialogue initiatives and social cohesion programs between the two groups were initiated but made limited progress and struggled to gain political support (Sudan Tribune 2009).

During the Comprehensive Peace Agreement era, Nagero experienced several attacks attributed to the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), although Nagero was less affected than most other areas of Western Equatoria.** This included an attack in October 2009 (OCHA 2009), and intermittent attacks in 2010 and 2011, including in the border region with Tambura County (Sudan Tribune 2011). ‘Arrow Boys’ (a community defence force, which include female members in their ranks) were mobilised in several areas of Western Equatoria in response to LRA activity, including in Nagero.

Nagero experienced insecurity during the latter years of the national conflict (2013-2018). Prior to this, the Small Arms Survey (2016) reported that several hundred (predominantly Balanda) Arrow Boys from Nagero joined the nascent SPLA-IO branch in Western Bahr el-Ghazal State in late 2014. In 2016, the military engaged the South Sudan People’s Patriotic Front (which emerged from a part of the Arrow Boys network that did not align with the SPLA-IO) along the Tambura-Nagero road (UNSC 2016). Further military operations against unspecified opposition forces were reported in the first half of 2017 (UNSC 2017), with conflict involving the SPLA-IO escalating in the spring of 2018. In May 2018 the SPLA-IO – reportedly operating alongside Fertit elements from neighbouring Western Bahr el-Ghazal State – seized Nagero town for three days. A joint UNMISS/OHCHR report (2018, p.9) alleged that the SPLA indiscriminately attacked civilians and destroyed homesteads as they entered Nagero from neighbouring Tambura County, and in Nagero town itself after they retook the town from the IO. Around 18,000 people were displaced to Tambura County, and 2,000 were displaced to Wau County. In Tambura, local authorities accused the IDPs of supporting opposition activities, amid alleged political resistance to permitting relief operations to occur within Tambura town (REACH 2018).

In 2021, brewing tensions within the SPLA-IO and elements of the Western Equatoria elite resulted in significant violence in Tambura, drawing in Azande militias and the largely Balanda SPLA-IO (discussed further in the Tambura County profile). The violence resulted in mass displacement from Tambura, with some 4,000 Balanda people seeking safety in neighbouring Nagero County (OCHA 2021). Although the violence was concentrated in Tambura, in June 2021 a Zande chief was reportedly killed in Nagero County by unknown attackers (UNSC 2021). Meanwhile i Amid rising tensions in Western Equatoria, a Zande official was allegedly assassinated in Nagero in September 2023, possibly as a reprisal for the killing of a Balanda trader in Ezo County (Craze 2023, p.3, fn.9).

Nagero County’s proximity to pastoralist communities in Greater Bahr el-Ghazal and the Central African Republic (CAR) has contributed to land and access disputes. There was also a significant influx of IDPs into Nagero from the Obo region of the CAR (where most South Sudanese refugees from Nagero and nearby counties of Tambura and Ezo are settled) in early 2019 after a flare-up of conflict between agriculturalists and pastoralists (REACH 2019b). Isolated security incidents involving Mbororo-Fulani pastoralists have reportedly occurred within Nagero, most recently in early 2023 when SPLA-IO forces clashed with pastoralists in the Bandala area south of Nagero town.

It is accurate, at least for the Balanda majority. They travel to Wau for big markets, not Yambio for instance. They have families in Wau and not in Yambio. etc etc. This link became important during the Tombura violance, when Fertit soldiers from WBG helped Futiyo and Angelo DAvido (the leader of the Balanda milita)

I don’t know for sure, but I would assume it was Balanda Militia

ADMINISTRATION & LOGISTICS

Payams listed in Government and UN documents: Nagero (County Headquarters), Namutina

Additional payams listed by local actors: Duma. Note in March 2023 the State Governor outlined plans to turn Bandala and Zomoi bomas into payams.

UN OCHA 2020 map for Nagero County: https://reliefweb.int/map/south-sudan/south-sudan-nagero-county-reference-map-march-2020

Roads:

• A primary road that connects Wau and Tambura runs through Nagero. In 2023, the route had a “yellow- passable with difficulties” designation issued by the Logistics Cluster during both rainy and drier portions of the year.

 UNHAS-Recognised Heli-Landing Sites and Airstrips: None

REFERENCES

Craze, J. (2023). Jemma’s War: Political Strife in Western Equatoria. Small Arms Survey/HSBA. Retrieved 4 December 2023.

Eye Radio. (2023). Governor Futuyo to upgrade Bandala, Zomoi to Payams. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

FAO/WFP. (2022). Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

FAO/WFP. (2023). South Sudan 2022 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Summary of findings. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

FEWSNET. (2018). Livelihoods Zone Map and Descriptions for the Republic of South Sudan (Updated). Retrieved 10 July 2023.

OCHA. (2009). Humanitarian action in Southern Sudan Report, Issue Number 36, 01-20 Oct 2009. Retrieved 4 December 2023.

OCHA. (2019). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2020. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

OCHA. (2021). Humanitarian Needs Overview: South Sudan 2021. Retrieved 10 July 2023.

OCHA. (2021). South Sudan: Tambura conflict. Flash Update No. 1. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

REACH. (2018). Situation Overview: Western Equatoria, July – September 2018. Retrieved 4 December 2023.

REACH. (2019a). Situation Overview: Western Equatoria, July – September 2019. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

REACH. (2019b). South Sudan Crossborder Population Movement Dynamics Brief. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

REACH. (2020). Integrated Needs Tracking (INT) County Profile – Nagero County. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

REACH. (2022). Integrated Needs Tracking (INT) County Profile. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

Small Arms Survey. (2016). Conflict in Western Equatoria: Describing events through 17 July 2016. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

Sudan Tribune. (2009). Western Equatoria seeks peaceful settlement to Tambura-Nagero’s row. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

Sudan Tribune. (2011). LRA rebels kill one and abduct five in W. Equatoria. Retrieved 18 December 2023.

Sudan Tribune. (2012). Western Equatoria border dispute conference begins. Retrieved 4 December 2023.

UNSC. (2016). Report of the Secretary-General on South Sudan (covering the period from 1 April to 3 June 2016), S/2016/552. Retrieved 4 December 2023.

UNSC. (2017). Report of the Secretary-General on South Sudan (covering the period from 2 March to 1 June 2017), S/2017/505. Retrieved 4 December 2023.

UNSC. (2021). Situation in South Sudan: Report of the Secretary-General, S/2021/784. Retrieved 4 December 2023.

REPORTS on NAGERO

Braak, B. J. (2020). ‘Warlord politics’ guides peace in South Sudan. Africa at LSE Blog. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

UNMISS/UN OHCHR. (2018), Violations and abuses against civilians in Gbudue and Tambura States (Western Equatoria) April-August 2018. Retrieved 15 July 2023.

* Note: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population Estimation Survey (PES) was published in April 2023 based on data collected in May-June 2021. This uses a different method to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Population Working Group (PWG) figures produced based on a combination of 2008 census data and population movement data up to 2022. The large discrepancies are primarily attributable to these different methods rather than changes in the actual population numbers over time and have been disputed by some civil society and analysts. Although the later PWG figures were produced more recently for the HNO 2023, at the request of the Government of South Sudan the data and method used by the PES is being used as the basis for the Common Operational Dataset (COD) for the UN system for the HNO 2024 and likely beyond. For further detail on this and other sources used in the county profiles, see the accompanying Methodological Note.

**Note: The name ‘Nagero’ is shared with a village in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Garamba National Park, and this village and nearby areas have also been affected by LRA activity. Non-specialist reporting on the LRA in South Sudan may have at times confused the two locations, leading some commentators to overstate the impact of the LRA in South Sudan’s Nagero County.