Relative to the last assessment in November 2020, the baseline in this Debt Sustainability Analysis
(DSA) has slightly higher oil prices and higher need for food imports due to severe flooding, which
has destroyed food stocks and crops ahead of the main harvest season, but is otherwise broadly
unchanged.
South Sudan’s debt is assessed to be sustainable with a high risk of debt distress for both external
and overall public debt.1 Specifically, there are temporary breaches in two out of seven debt
indicators under the baseline scenario (debt service–to–revenues ratio of external public debt, and
present value (PV) of debt–to–GDP ratio of overall public debt). These breaches suggest a high risk
of external and overall public debt distress. However, all external and overall public debt indicators
are expected to be below the respective thresholds from 2024/25 onwards, contingent on the
authorities’ commitment to policy adjustment needed to cap the deficit over the medium term
together with increased concessional financing. South Sudan’s external and overall debt are
therefore assessed to be sustainable. Risks to this assessment are tilted to the downside, including
in relation to the implementation of policy adjustment and limited access to concessional loans.